I'll just leave this here for you guys. I found this list of concepts I had put together a short while back, and a large amount of these are topics that are seldom-taught in a straightforward way, and I have never found all these "secret" concepts in one place like this before. Hopefully some of you find value in this, or say "I never really considered that.." because that's the point in why I made this. When you piece it all together and hone in on what you don't already know, then you can move forward and open your mind to new things....
- HFT algos
- Entry signals..exit signals
- Confluence...multicolinnearity
- Fake gurus...slab city lolz
- Biotech/fda plays
- Chart patterns
- Candlestick logic
- Low floats
- Tape reading
- Screening / scanner
- Truth about paid scanners, rooms, etc
- Analysis paralysis
- Bag holding vs taking losses vs locking profits
- Stop losses
- Divergence, why I suck at it, and why that’s okay
- Using technicals logically and not overthinking it
- Taking entry off alerts - psychology, truth, why it’s good and why it’s bad
- List of blogs to follow/read
- List of resources to refer to
- Why I don’t bullshit, and who I am (I am you)
- Ustocktrade - how it works, how to use it to your benefit, legit advice
- Swing trading vs Day trading
- Moving avgs - 8 and 20 + ema/ama
- SSR
- Sabby management
- Insider trades
- Earnings plays
- Catalysts
- Conferences
- Offerings
- Afterhours/premarket
- Brokers
- Bankruptcy plays
- Reverse split plays
- Playing the runners
- Opening range breakouts
- Why the 100%ers are great
- Mental/psych stoploss DOES NOT WORK
- Psychological resistance/support levels
Showing posts with label $STUDY. Show all posts
Showing posts with label $STUDY. Show all posts
Friday, June 15, 2018
Tuesday, June 12, 2018
The 4 Sins: Psychology, Risk Management, Trade Management, Trading Journals
There are 4 topics that I want to cover in this post:
Chances are, you may start to see trading itself in a whole new light if you've never read Traderfeed before...and even if you have (particularly if you have), I think this is a great first place to start.
By understanding the psychology of our trading sins, we can begin to tackle them, one by one, little by little. And so we begin....
Self-Coaching
Diagnosis: Identifying the Root of Trading Problems
How Trading Dreams Come True
Trading Journals:
- Trading Psychology
- Risk Management
- Trade Management
- Trading Journals
Chances are, you may start to see trading itself in a whole new light if you've never read Traderfeed before...and even if you have (particularly if you have), I think this is a great first place to start.
By understanding the psychology of our trading sins, we can begin to tackle them, one by one, little by little. And so we begin....
Self-Coaching
Diagnosis: Identifying the Root of Trading Problems
- http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2017/06/trading-psychology-diagnosis.html
- http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2017/12/trading-psychology-challenges-11.html
- http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2006/08/trader-performance-what-contributes-to.html?m=1
How Trading Dreams Come True
Trading Journals:
- http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2014/08/supercharging-your-trading-journal.html
- http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-power-of-trading-journals.html
- http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2014/02/taking-trading-journals-to-next-level.html
- http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/02/trading-journals-what-format-is-right.html
- http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/05/how-to-keep-trading-journal-trader.html
You won't be successful until you say I don't need the money cause I got it in here.
Only the strong survive.
It's more than you want it so bad than you wanna breathe that's not enough, you gotta be willing to face every fear, climb every mountain, defy every odd, on-slot every obstacle, one step at a time, one day at a time, until you -- only you are left standing -- there's no one else and there's nothing standing in your way.
Only the strong survive.
It's more than you want it so bad than you wanna breathe that's not enough, you gotta be willing to face every fear, climb every mountain, defy every odd, on-slot every obstacle, one step at a time, one day at a time, until you -- only you are left standing -- there's no one else and there's nothing standing in your way.
Until you reach the top.
Sunday, June 10, 2018
Preparing to Profit in the Face of Retaliatory Tariffs by Canada/Mexico/EU
Background/Intro:
Canada:
Here's some stuff made in the U.S. on which Canada will
likely post retaliatory tariffs. Canada is the U.S.'s largest export market,
according to the Census Bureau:
- pizza, quiche, chocolate, whiskies, toilet paper, paper towels, strawberry jam, ketchup, mustard, yogurt, lawn mowers, refrigerators, washing machines, maple syrup, beer kegs, mineral water, fresh orange juice, mayonnaise, salad dressing, automatic dishwasher detergents, cucumbers, gherkins, ball point pens, felt-tipped pens, plywood, bobbins, roasted coffee, licorice candy, toffee, hair spray, shaving creams, soaps, candles, kitchenware, manicure and pedicure preparations, handkerchiefs, facial tissues, printed postcards, some insecticides, iron products, sailboats, some chairs, mattresses, plastic bags, sleeping bags, playing cards, soy sauce, and forms of aluminum and steel.
Mexico:
Here's some of the stuff the U.S. exports to Mexico (the
second biggest U.S. export market) that will likely be hit by retaliation for
the steel and aluminum levies:
- Lamps, pork, cheese, flat steel, apples, pears, grapes, cheese, blueberries, sausages, and other meat products.
European Union (EU):
The EU has said that it will target these U.S. exports:
- Bourbon whiskey, motorcycles, denim, cigarette, cranberry juice, orange juice, some pants and shorts, some bedlinen, corn, tobacco, t-shirts, motor boats, some rice, some beans, peanut butter, and forms of aluminum and steel.
The EU's target of cranberries, roughly half of which are
exported from the key state of Wisconsin, according to the Census Bureau
data. By targeting goods like bourbon
from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's home state of Kentucky and
motorcycles from House Speaker Paul Ryan's district in Wisconsin, the allies
appear to be trying to send a message to those political leaders as well.
Notes:
Likely a slim
picking of stocks within many of these sub-sectors, but all we need is 1.Bourbon is sounding like it’s gonna get slammed super hard
And Mexico’s focus is likely going to be on pork products
Steel seems to be a mutual target amongst Canada/EU/Mexico too. None have spoken out about steel tariffs being definitive or whether it’ll be crushing but going along the lines of what I was saying originally, may be a good one for us to hone in DD on. Whatever their targets end up being, they are just going to focus on constricting those couple markets as much as they can by all targeting it together. Otherwise their responses would all be useless if they didn’t try and slam the table on something to make Trump stop
Saturday, June 9, 2018
The Seldom-Discussed Truth: Sabby Mgmt/HC Wainright/Citron/Muddy Waters $STUDY
Below are some quick notes I had previously jotted down and I'm posting here to keep things organized and since I would really like to expand upon these thoughts and branch out from here, since for one reason or another...no one is willing/ballsy enough to call it out for what it is.
Based on the little I know about how things work legally in this game, I'd HAVE to be wrong about what I'm even suggesting about HC Wainwright and Sabby Management....but I'm not. Why? Because they've each gotten in trouble for it before. I'm no lawyer, but some light digging should lead you to court filings/settlements where HC Wainwright/Sabby Management have gotten busted for either taking positions long/short prior to a secondary offering, which they were not allowed to have done, and then they pay a pretty penny, get a slap on the wrist and move on..
So, why do we care? Because there's just some things that I have grown to understand are important, even though no one tells you that. And if you were to ask them, they'd probably stumble over their words since in a case like this "seldom-discussed truth", it's just something that needs to be considered as part of your entire trading confluence. I don't care whether I am bringing up a topic that could be argued endlessly, since all I care about is my money, and not losing it.
-------------------------------------------
OK - I hadn't planned to write this much as an intro to introductory notes, which I wrote a month ago, but I guess this kinds of gets right to the heart of what all that talk above is pointing to.....
Some things are just better left unquestioned. Accept it for what it is and move on...
-------------------------------------------
Wainwright = likes to run up, offering, dump, then long term value
Sabby = likes to hold down stocks with exploitable sentiment, tries to make it hard for traders to just play the charts and beat them, i don’t even quite understand how their obligations to complete sec filings aren’t due to them being short rather than long…it’s almost obvious the price action following hearing Sabby stakes…bearish…too dangerous…time n time again they hold the wall down hard once cat is out the bag…consensus of crowd seems to be Sabby short. Unsure if them placing their legitimate shares on the ask to appear short and accumulate more can be ruled out…
MuddyWaters and Citron on a similar level in my books…
Citron and Muddy = starts w/ generally exaggerated bear call, but their DD stands and usually will have profits locked in often — unsafe/unstable to play
Based on the little I know about how things work legally in this game, I'd HAVE to be wrong about what I'm even suggesting about HC Wainwright and Sabby Management....but I'm not. Why? Because they've each gotten in trouble for it before. I'm no lawyer, but some light digging should lead you to court filings/settlements where HC Wainwright/Sabby Management have gotten busted for either taking positions long/short prior to a secondary offering, which they were not allowed to have done, and then they pay a pretty penny, get a slap on the wrist and move on..
So, why do we care? Because there's just some things that I have grown to understand are important, even though no one tells you that. And if you were to ask them, they'd probably stumble over their words since in a case like this "seldom-discussed truth", it's just something that needs to be considered as part of your entire trading confluence. I don't care whether I am bringing up a topic that could be argued endlessly, since all I care about is my money, and not losing it.
-------------------------------------------
OK - I hadn't planned to write this much as an intro to introductory notes, which I wrote a month ago, but I guess this kinds of gets right to the heart of what all that talk above is pointing to.....
Some things are just better left unquestioned. Accept it for what it is and move on...
- Sabby Management taking a stake in a company is notoriously known as BEARISH amongst exprienced traders familiar with them.
- HC Wainwright taking a stake in a company means.....DON'T SLEEP. These guys take lots and lots of stakes in companies and they do lots and lots of secondary offerings/find ways to build value in their long-term positions in companies. THINK TWICE about swinging a stock with ties to HC Wainwright (or any instit/fund) that ends the day up big. As 90% of you have likely realized quite quickly realized....this is just how the cookie crumbles. A stock closes that day up 18% for the first time in awhile, then boom what do ya know, offering announced in afterhours.
-------------------------------------------
Wainwright = likes to run up, offering, dump, then long term value
Sabby = likes to hold down stocks with exploitable sentiment, tries to make it hard for traders to just play the charts and beat them, i don’t even quite understand how their obligations to complete sec filings aren’t due to them being short rather than long…it’s almost obvious the price action following hearing Sabby stakes…bearish…too dangerous…time n time again they hold the wall down hard once cat is out the bag…consensus of crowd seems to be Sabby short. Unsure if them placing their legitimate shares on the ask to appear short and accumulate more can be ruled out…
MuddyWaters and Citron on a similar level in my books…
Citron and Muddy = starts w/ generally exaggerated bear call, but their DD stands and usually will have profits locked in often — unsafe/unstable to play
DD on $OIIM $ERIC $FSNN
(Old post from 5/13/18)
$OIIM $ERIC $FSNN
OIIM is another “undiscovered” kind of play play:
⁃ low float
⁃ nice chart potential long term
- likely to get pumped soon enough
⁃ analyst coverage: Zacks small cap
⁃ Fundamentals fine, holds value and buyout potential
⁃ Recent earnings was average based on what’s on paper, but there is growth to be found. Ran up 10% following my entry (and alert), but that runup definitely not purely pump run from my alert
Let’s take another look at the stock $ERIC as well…Chart was looking great recently all the way up to the monthly. Took my eye off this/it never ran much to catch my eye again.
FSNN is a cheap ticker w possible big future involving the move to 5G
$OIIM $ERIC $FSNN
OIIM is another “undiscovered” kind of play play:
⁃ low float
⁃ nice chart potential long term
- likely to get pumped soon enough
⁃ analyst coverage: Zacks small cap
⁃ Fundamentals fine, holds value and buyout potential
⁃ Recent earnings was average based on what’s on paper, but there is growth to be found. Ran up 10% following my entry (and alert), but that runup definitely not purely pump run from my alert
Let’s take another look at the stock $ERIC as well…Chart was looking great recently all the way up to the monthly. Took my eye off this/it never ran much to catch my eye again.
- Involved in future conversion to 5G networks will be huge…strength in
company seemed to be there. Believe they are China 5G? Pretty sure that
serves greater significance for them as a stock..China has devoted
more/gotten farther than we have so far…
FSNN is a cheap ticker w possible big future involving the move to 5G
Friday, June 8, 2018
Watchlist for 6/8/2018 + Analysis
$HEAR $NKTR $VRS $IZEA $GLNG $DCIX $AXON
HEAR
- Alert triggered at break of $20.50, took early entry
- A bit risky, but also solid reward given all the interest in this former low float runner
- Weak-ish afterhours, nothing majorly concerning
NKTR
- Huge dump again today
- Not as appealing as it was following original dump from $90
- Great reward still there, as long as we get good entries and set stoplosses
VRS
- Nice pullback from overextended territory
- PT1 $21.10
- PT2 all-time high $21.82
- Watch for trend continuation if we break highs
IZEA
- Break of $1.47 is confirmation of trend reversal
- Hourly chart was beautiful today, took early entry
- Daily chart has high reward if trend reverses
GLNG
- Break of $27.80 is confirmation on hourly and daily - alert set
- PT: $29.58 (end of upper body of candlestick)
DCIX
- Looking ready, best to get early entry
- *Insert obligatory comment about this being a shipper and needing to think twice (or thrice) about swinging a shipper*
AXON
- Fat dump after the run 2 days ago, and continuation into yesterday before the dump began
- $5 level is important
- Up slightly in afterhours
- Still very high risk if we're hasty and take entry near previous lows, and don't use STOPLOSS. We can get caught in a huge dumparoo and become bagholders
HEAR
- Alert triggered at break of $20.50, took early entry
- A bit risky, but also solid reward given all the interest in this former low float runner
- Weak-ish afterhours, nothing majorly concerning
NKTR
- Huge dump again today
- Not as appealing as it was following original dump from $90
- Great reward still there, as long as we get good entries and set stoplosses
VRS
- Nice pullback from overextended territory
- PT1 $21.10
- PT2 all-time high $21.82
- Watch for trend continuation if we break highs
IZEA
- Break of $1.47 is confirmation of trend reversal
- Hourly chart was beautiful today, took early entry
- Daily chart has high reward if trend reverses
GLNG
- Break of $27.80 is confirmation on hourly and daily - alert set
- PT: $29.58 (end of upper body of candlestick)
DCIX
- Looking ready, best to get early entry
- *Insert obligatory comment about this being a shipper and needing to think twice (or thrice) about swinging a shipper*
AXON
- Fat dump after the run 2 days ago, and continuation into yesterday before the dump began
- $5 level is important
- Up slightly in afterhours
- Still very high risk if we're hasty and take entry near previous lows, and don't use STOPLOSS. We can get caught in a huge dumparoo and become bagholders
Friday, June 1, 2018
Ticker Analysis for 6/1/2018 and next week 6/4 $STUDY
$CLSD $BPMX $CAE $BRKS $IPAS $ANY $VRS $GLNG $X $UAVS $ARLZ $EDRY $AVGR $CHEK $WMLP $NAP $ITUS $AXON $NOMD $HABT $TEUM $DPW $RIOT $TROV $VKTX $VTVT $CLWT $CBK $SWIR $GES $MU $RAS
CLSD
⦁ Entry: break of $10.27 resistance is strong confirmation of reversal
⦁ PT1: $10.72
⦁ Important -- we care that it's down 32% on a supposedly positive news Catalyst (trial results) -- we NOT care that it's down with a positive news Catalyst. -- what's the difference? When trading news Catalysts, we must price-in the Catalyst and consider the fair value of the stock. Forget the trolls quoting results of trials to you and focus on "trading your plan". (Traders, not Investors.)
⦁ Bouncing off $9 low (support on weekly charts if $10 fails)
⦁ Strong support at $10 on daily (5+ touches), also a psychological support level.
⦁ Watch for oscillation around $10 tomorrow morning, before pushing big -- in either direction
⦁ Weekly charts not so great
⦁ We have 1 confirmation candle hourly candle already -- don't chase, wait for the best entry!
BPMX
⦁ Strong daily volume
⦁ Look for gains to hold
⦁ Nice weekly charts
⦁ RSI 73 on daily
CAE
⦁ Super nice uptrender to swing
⦁ Entry:on pullback
⦁ Support: $20.88, $20.00
⦁ Resistance: $21.39
⦁ Analyst PT $25/$28/.50
BRKS
⦁ Resistance: $34.77
IPAS
⦁ Daily chart looking like confirmed trend reversal at hold of .41/.43
ANY
⦁ Resistance: 71 and .73
VRS
⦁ Alerts set (at or above): $20.43 and $21.12
⦁ Alerts at (at or below): $19.12
⦁ Break of all-time high $21.12 is full confirmed entry (assuming volume)
GLNG
⦁ Entry: break of $26.00
X
⦁ Support: $36.50
⦁ Resistance: $38.00, $39.23
⦁ Curling slightly on 1hr
⦁ Consider steel tariffs on EU, Canada, Mexico
UAVS
⦁ Alert set (above): 2.50
ARLZ
⦁ Alert set (above): .43
EDRY
⦁ New "undiscovered" shipper stock -- started trading on the NASDAQ 5/31/2018
⦁ Looks like a low floater, actual float unconfirmed (haven't found it yet)
⦁ Hourly charts bullish 8/20 EMA cross
AVGR
⦁ Support: $1.65 (weak) and $1.40 (strong) -- then $1.10 30-day low
⦁ Resistance: $1.65 and $1.94
CHEK
⦁ Support: $3.81
⦁ Resistance: $4.20 (if we break this, should act as support -- it did prevoiusly) and then $5 psychological resistance
⦁ Break of $6 brings gap fill to $10.00
WMLP
⦁ Higher risk, watch for fakeout
⦁ Hourly charts looking like it could bounce
⦁ Daily chart looks like it has room to drop some more -- $1.33 is before run began
NAP
⦁ Alert set (above): $4.10
ITUS
⦁ Been sleeping for quite a while
⦁ Support: $3.50
⦁ Resistance: $3.80, wait for confirmation of break at $3.87 for entry
AXON
⦁ Support: $1.65 and $1.50
⦁ Resistance: $1.70 and $1.80 -- then free till $2.38
NOMD
⦁ Support: $17.34
⦁ Resistance: $18, wait for confirmation of break at $18.13 for entry
HABT
⦁ Higher lows since it touched low of $8.11
⦁ Support: $8.60
⦁ Resistance: $9.15
TEUM
⦁ Alert set (above): $2.50
⦁ Support: $2.30
⦁ Resistance: $2.50 and $3
DPW
⦁ Watch for reversal confirmation off of .635 low
⦁ Support: .635
RIOT
⦁ Watch for bounce off $6.82 low
⦁ Reversal candle on daily
TROV
⦁ 1:12 Reverse Split Monday 6/4/2018
VKTX
⦁ Watch for break and hold of $10
⦁ Closed at highs (bullish signal generally)
⦁ High risk until consolidation shows
⦁ Support: $7.15-$7.36 then $5.50
⦁ Resistance: $10.50
VTVT
⦁ Large institutional stake at ~$4 avg
⦁ Approaching support, can bounce
⦁ Support: $1.70-$1.75
CLWT
⦁ Special dividend of $.70 per share approved
CBK
⦁ Watch for follow-through of reversal from .75 lows
⦁ Dumped 25% intraday yesterday off Earnings Report
⦁ Support of .95/.96 on weekly charts (shh don't tell! Not many care enough to go all the way back to weekly charts for support...but MM's do)
⦁ ER doesn't look so terrible
⦁ High risk until confirmation (Nasty wicks on hourly charts, indicating bagholders)
SWIR
⦁ Reversal looks nice on 1hr
⦁ Dumped on PT cut to $22 and CEO resigning
GES
⦁ Largest 1 day loss since August 2012
⦁ Watch for bounce off $19.50 low
MU
⦁ Bouncing off 200SMA on hourly
⦁ Up nicely in premarket ($58.45 vs. $57.59)
⦁ Can get nasty if it doesn't hold, don't get greedy -- this is a highly traded stock
RAS
⦁ New low of .15/.156
⦁ Watch for small bounce
⦁ Lotto play mentality
CLSD
⦁ Entry: break of $10.27 resistance is strong confirmation of reversal
⦁ PT1: $10.72
⦁ Important -- we care that it's down 32% on a supposedly positive news Catalyst (trial results) -- we NOT care that it's down with a positive news Catalyst. -- what's the difference? When trading news Catalysts, we must price-in the Catalyst and consider the fair value of the stock. Forget the trolls quoting results of trials to you and focus on "trading your plan". (Traders, not Investors.)
⦁ Bouncing off $9 low (support on weekly charts if $10 fails)
⦁ Strong support at $10 on daily (5+ touches), also a psychological support level.
⦁ Watch for oscillation around $10 tomorrow morning, before pushing big -- in either direction
⦁ Weekly charts not so great
⦁ We have 1 confirmation candle hourly candle already -- don't chase, wait for the best entry!
BPMX
⦁ Strong daily volume
⦁ Look for gains to hold
⦁ Nice weekly charts
⦁ RSI 73 on daily
CAE
⦁ Super nice uptrender to swing
⦁ Entry:on pullback
⦁ Support: $20.88, $20.00
⦁ Resistance: $21.39
⦁ Analyst PT $25/$28/.50
BRKS
⦁ Resistance: $34.77
IPAS
⦁ Daily chart looking like confirmed trend reversal at hold of .41/.43
ANY
⦁ Resistance: 71 and .73
VRS
⦁ Alerts set (at or above): $20.43 and $21.12
⦁ Alerts at (at or below): $19.12
⦁ Break of all-time high $21.12 is full confirmed entry (assuming volume)
GLNG
⦁ Entry: break of $26.00
X
⦁ Support: $36.50
⦁ Resistance: $38.00, $39.23
⦁ Curling slightly on 1hr
⦁ Consider steel tariffs on EU, Canada, Mexico
UAVS
⦁ Alert set (above): 2.50
ARLZ
⦁ Alert set (above): .43
EDRY
⦁ New "undiscovered" shipper stock -- started trading on the NASDAQ 5/31/2018
⦁ Looks like a low floater, actual float unconfirmed (haven't found it yet)
⦁ Hourly charts bullish 8/20 EMA cross
AVGR
⦁ Support: $1.65 (weak) and $1.40 (strong) -- then $1.10 30-day low
⦁ Resistance: $1.65 and $1.94
CHEK
⦁ Support: $3.81
⦁ Resistance: $4.20 (if we break this, should act as support -- it did prevoiusly) and then $5 psychological resistance
⦁ Break of $6 brings gap fill to $10.00
WMLP
⦁ Higher risk, watch for fakeout
⦁ Hourly charts looking like it could bounce
⦁ Daily chart looks like it has room to drop some more -- $1.33 is before run began
NAP
⦁ Alert set (above): $4.10
ITUS
⦁ Been sleeping for quite a while
⦁ Support: $3.50
⦁ Resistance: $3.80, wait for confirmation of break at $3.87 for entry
AXON
⦁ Support: $1.65 and $1.50
⦁ Resistance: $1.70 and $1.80 -- then free till $2.38
NOMD
⦁ Support: $17.34
⦁ Resistance: $18, wait for confirmation of break at $18.13 for entry
HABT
⦁ Higher lows since it touched low of $8.11
⦁ Support: $8.60
⦁ Resistance: $9.15
TEUM
⦁ Alert set (above): $2.50
⦁ Support: $2.30
⦁ Resistance: $2.50 and $3
DPW
⦁ Watch for reversal confirmation off of .635 low
⦁ Support: .635
RIOT
⦁ Watch for bounce off $6.82 low
⦁ Reversal candle on daily
TROV
⦁ 1:12 Reverse Split Monday 6/4/2018
VKTX
⦁ Watch for break and hold of $10
⦁ Closed at highs (bullish signal generally)
⦁ High risk until consolidation shows
⦁ Support: $7.15-$7.36 then $5.50
⦁ Resistance: $10.50
VTVT
⦁ Large institutional stake at ~$4 avg
⦁ Approaching support, can bounce
⦁ Support: $1.70-$1.75
CLWT
⦁ Special dividend of $.70 per share approved
CBK
⦁ Watch for follow-through of reversal from .75 lows
⦁ Dumped 25% intraday yesterday off Earnings Report
⦁ Support of .95/.96 on weekly charts (shh don't tell! Not many care enough to go all the way back to weekly charts for support...but MM's do)
⦁ ER doesn't look so terrible
⦁ High risk until confirmation (Nasty wicks on hourly charts, indicating bagholders)
SWIR
⦁ Reversal looks nice on 1hr
⦁ Dumped on PT cut to $22 and CEO resigning
GES
⦁ Largest 1 day loss since August 2012
⦁ Watch for bounce off $19.50 low
MU
⦁ Bouncing off 200SMA on hourly
⦁ Up nicely in premarket ($58.45 vs. $57.59)
⦁ Can get nasty if it doesn't hold, don't get greedy -- this is a highly traded stock
RAS
⦁ New low of .15/.156
⦁ Watch for small bounce
⦁ Lotto play mentality
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
$CHEK Analysis for 5/17/2018 $STUDY
Ok guys...let's be real. I'm willing to bet that if you're reading this post, then you want to learn how to become a successful trader. Let me start off this entire blog by telling you one thing: so do I.
My goal is not only to become a successful trader, but to do it in a way that will lead me to a life of financial freedom and leave me with a clean conscience about how I got there. As we are all aware, there are those who we would agree are either pumpers, or just plain bad traders with a bunch of followers. You will not hear me publicly go after others or trash talk a stock often. Why?
Because it doesn't help us make money and it doesn't help us learn. That being said, let's get to some analysis. My goal is to help you LEARN and to help myself learn in the process. I am on your side and enjoy seeing the spark in all the new traders who follow me that I've met recently.
Let's get to work...
First, let's take a look at CHEK -- and in doing so, this brings up an interesting first little lesson for us.
So.....what do you see? No, that's not a trick question. You shouldn't really see much. We can certainly read all into it and give some BS analysis, but this chart is not helpful for our purposes.
MULTI-TIME FRAME ANALYSIS! If you are not familiar with this concept, you must spend the time to understand it. We must consider the time frame we are looking to trade when we choose time frames on our charts! This is a daily chart (each candle representing 1 day). Unless we want to long-term swing this, I need to see a shorter timeframe. Now we have....
Ahh, damn. Now THAT is nice!!! Shorts are about to lose their faces and we should short squeeze real nice tomorrow. There's a lot I could teach based on this chart alone, but until I have some idea for whether anyone is even interested in reading or not....let's keep it to the point.
I see:
That was a lot to say a little, but there is a lot of valuable information that I was never offered when I was a beginner trader trying to soak up information from those I wished to learn from.
Let's get this money!!!
My goal is not only to become a successful trader, but to do it in a way that will lead me to a life of financial freedom and leave me with a clean conscience about how I got there. As we are all aware, there are those who we would agree are either pumpers, or just plain bad traders with a bunch of followers. You will not hear me publicly go after others or trash talk a stock often. Why?
Because it doesn't help us make money and it doesn't help us learn. That being said, let's get to some analysis. My goal is to help you LEARN and to help myself learn in the process. I am on your side and enjoy seeing the spark in all the new traders who follow me that I've met recently.
Let's get to work...
First, let's take a look at CHEK -- and in doing so, this brings up an interesting first little lesson for us.
So.....what do you see? No, that's not a trick question. You shouldn't really see much. We can certainly read all into it and give some BS analysis, but this chart is not helpful for our purposes.
MULTI-TIME FRAME ANALYSIS! If you are not familiar with this concept, you must spend the time to understand it. We must consider the time frame we are looking to trade when we choose time frames on our charts! This is a daily chart (each candle representing 1 day). Unless we want to long-term swing this, I need to see a shorter timeframe. Now we have....
Ahh, damn. Now THAT is nice!!! Shorts are about to lose their faces and we should short squeeze real nice tomorrow. There's a lot I could teach based on this chart alone, but until I have some idea for whether anyone is even interested in reading or not....let's keep it to the point.
I see:
- Chart beginning to move back up
- No this isn't a guessing game -- what do we look for guys? BREAKS OF RESISTANCE!
- We broke above the resistance levels you see on the chart at $4.77 and $4.87 -- that was our first possible entry point!! At the breakout!
- Level 2 price strong above close price
- This is a strong indication that we will have a huge day tomorrow and continue running up. But....WE MUST ACCOUNT FOR THE RISK OF THE PLAY!
- The stock closed up 20% on the day, and the price is up even more in after hours...this is no fire sale bargain!! Play smart!
- Big red gap candle that leads us up to $6.38 -- where is this?? Let me actually point out all these levels to you that I just mentioned then I'll finish up.....
That all making sense?
If so, we have settled the play in our mind -- we are bullish. This should squeeze. Let's finish with some PTs, entries, and what to look for... *reminder to myself and yourself to TRADE THE PLAN, too often we throw all our analysis out the window and lose money! No more. *
- Huge level is going to be $5 psychological support level.
- Closing price was below this and the bulls won in the after-hours, but we must watch in PREMARKET. It gets really frustrating when new traders ask the day before: what will happen? What will happen? How should I know dude? If someone wants to sell a huge amount of shares, our analysis will not tell the whole story.
- My eye is on PT $6.38
- That means I would sell/scale out of my position as we approach those levels, based on probability we get beaten down from that level.
- Conversely, if we BREAK $6.38, then it's just the opposite of what it says on the chart....
- ON A BREAKOUT: old RESISTANCE is new SUPPORT
- ON A DUMP: old SUPPORT is new RESISTANCE
That was a lot to say a little, but there is a lot of valuable information that I was never offered when I was a beginner trader trying to soak up information from those I wished to learn from.
Let's get this money!!!
Trading is not easy. So, how bad do you want it?
There was a young man, you know,
who wanted to make a lot of money
and so he went to this guru, right.
And he told the guru you know
I wanna be on the same level
you are and the guru said
if you wanna be on the same level I’m on,
I’ll met you tomorrow at the beach.
So the young man got there 4 A.M. he already to rock n’ roll.
Got on a suit should of wore shorts.
The old man grabs his hand and said:
How bad do you wanna be successful?
He said: “Real bad”.
He said: Walk on out in the water.
So he walks out into the water. Watch this.
When he walks out to the water
he goes waist deep and goes like this guy crazy.
Hey I wanna make money and he got me out here swimming.
I didn’t ask to be a lifeguard.
I wanna make money he got me in
so he said come on a little further
walked out a little further
then he had it right around this area
the shoulder area
so this old man crazy
he making money but he crazy.
So he said come on out a little further
came out a little further, it was right at his mouth
my man, I’m not about to go back in this guy is out of his mind. And the old man said:
“I thought you said you wanted to be successful?”
He said: “I do.”
He said: “Then walk a little further.”
He came, dropped his head in, held him down,
hold him down, my man (kept scratching) hold him down,
he had him held down,
just before my man was about to pass out,
he raised him up.
He said: “I got a question for you.”
He told the guy, he said:
“When you want to succeed as bad as
you wanna breathe than you will be successful.”
He said: “I do.”
He said: “Then walk a little further.”
He came, dropped his head in, held him down,
hold him down, my man (kept scratching) hold him down,
he had him held down,
just before my man was about to pass out,
he raised him up.
He said: “I got a question for you.”
He told the guy, he said:
“When you want to succeed as bad as
you wanna breathe than you will be successful.”
I don’t know how many of you all got asthma here today?
If you ever had a asthma attack before your short of breath S.O.B shortness of breath,
you wheezing (breath sound) the only thing
you trying to do is get some air.
You don’t care about no basketball game,
you don’t care about what’s on T.V.,
you don’t care about nobody calling you,
you don’t care about a party.
The only thing you care about
when you trying to breathe is to get some fresh air.
That’s it!
And when you get to the point
where all you wanna do is
be is successful as bad as
you wanna breathe then you will be successful.
And I’m here to tell you that number one,
most of you say you wanna be successful
but you don’t want it bad, you just kind of want it.
You don’t want it bad than you wanna party.
You don’t want it as much as you want to be cool.
Most of you don’t want success as much as you want sleep.
Some of you lost sleep more than you lost success.
And I’m here to tell you today,
if your going to be successful
you gotta be willing to give up sleep.
You gotta be willing to work with 3 hours of sleep
2 hours of sleep, if you really wanna be successful.
Some day your gonna have to stay up 3 days in a row.
Because if you go to sleep you might miss
the opportunity to be successful.
That’s how bad you gotta want it.
You gotta go days without
LISTEN TO ME!
You gotta want to be successful so bad that you forget to eat.
My momma say,
once she was on the set doing her thang,
three days had gone by and she forgot that she didn’t eat. Cause she was engaged.
I never forget,
I went, 50 Cent was doing his movie,
I did a little research on 50
and 50 said: that when he wasn’t do the movie he was doing the soundtrack.
And they said: “When do you sleep?” 50,
and 50 said: “Sleep, sleep is for those people who are broke.
I don’t sleep.” See I got an opportunity to make my dream become a reality.
Don’t cry to quits.
You already in pain, you already hurt.
Get a reward from it. Don’t go to sleep until you succeed.
Listen to me,
I’m here to tell you today you can come here and
and you can jump up – you can do flips and you can be excited when we give away money but listen to me,
you will never be successful,
I don’t have to give you a dime if you ...
You won’t be successful until you say I don’t need that money cause I got it in here.
Only The Strong Survive!
So you thought it was the end of the story. (laughs)
So you thought just because the student was willing to be obedient to the guru and not only wake up but meet him at the beach early in the morning.
You thought that was enough. [knocking]
Ah I got it. So you thought he was willing to walk out to the deep of the ocean that that was enough you because the guru placed his head under the water, pulled it out and taught him that the secret to success is wanting it as bad as you wanna breathe.
So you thought that was the end of the story. You thought that one single event that one single moment was enough for him to stand amongst the greats to make his dream become reality.
Well you thought wrong. In fact, it’s far from over. That was the easy part.
Now...Now it’s time to redefine the grind. You thought it was over?
Well it’s just getting started.
See, this is the part. This is the part where life demands you make a life long commitment, this is the part where life demands that you make a vow come hail or high water, that you’re willing to pay the price the full fare where you earn your spot with effort, with sweat, with blood, with tears. And so you say, you want it as bad as you wanna breathe.
Then it’s show time! It’s examination time. It’s time to get tested, to test your will, your endurance, it’s time to test your art, to test your limits. This is the art where you re-invent yourself.
Sleep. I don’t sleep.
You thought that was it.
It goes deeper than going without sleep because you might miss the opportunity to succeed.
No, no, no it’s about no days off – no weekends, no holidays, no birthdays. Listen to me! No days off! No half days! No holidays! No snow day! It’s about gaining the competitive edge. It’s about separation.
It’s about separating yourself from the pack, the competition.
It’s about being a little faster, a little stronger.
Listen to me.
A little faster than you were last year, last month, last week.
In fact, you gotta be a little faster today than you were yesterday.
And you can’t afford on the road to success, you can’t afford to make excuses.
No excuses when you feel pain. And trust me, you will feel it.
You gotta go deep deep down, beyond, beyond exhaustion, beyond (a workout) and when it’s harder than you imagined it would be, when it takes longer than you thought it would take and when the load is heavy than you thought you could bare and all you wanna do is give up and all you wanna do is give in, when you feel like you’ve given all you got, you gotta take one more step, you gotta run one more lap.
You gotta throw one more punch and disregard how much more does it take.
You gotta fight back. You gotta fight a little harder.
You gotta defeat disappointment, annihilate weakness and punish the competition.
It’s about pushing yourself beyond the limits.
It’s about perfecting the you, not just doing more, not just being better but finding your best.
Listen to me...
It’s more than you want it so bad than you wanna breathe that’s not enough, you gotta be willing to face every fear, climb every mountain, defy every odd, on-slot every obstacle, one step at a time, one day at a time, until you – only you are left standing – there’s no one else and there’s nothing in your way.
Until you reach the top.
Saturday, April 28, 2018
Method to the Madness (Part 2)
Method to the Madness (Part 2):
Do You Have a Trading Plan? If NOT… Take Note!
Do You Have a Trading Plan? If NOT… Take Note!
A
trading plan is an essential tool if you want to be a successful trader.
Preparing
your trade ensures you take advantage of opportunities while preventing
catastrophes. I believe that preparing a complete plan before entering any
trade is mandatory. Devastating losses usually happen to traders who fail to
plan.
Traders
who fail simply don’t know what they want or how they are going to get it.
A
trading plan is your blueprint to success. It should include your objectives,
procedures, and most of all, your trading system.
A
trading plan MUST be written down.
Most of
all, a trader must have the discipline to stick to it.
The
plan must contain:
·
What market are you trading in? e.g.: stocks, options, etc.
·
Your Entry signals
·
Your Exit signals
·
Your Risk Management
·
Your Money Management
Consider
the difference between a trader who answers these questions (plus more) and one
who does not. It makes sense that the better prepared trader will make fewer mistakes.
He will also enjoy a greater percentage of wins.
In a
sense, this process allows you to come up with your own winning system. With a
little experience you will put together a fool-proof system that delivers the
good results you deserve.
Treat
your business of share trading with the importance it deserves. Why risk your
money, if you do not want to treat it as a business. Suppose you were to
purchase a business trying to create an income and life style for your family.
Would you not take the time to assess every detail necessary to succeed? I am
sure you would.
Share
trading gives you the chance to create a life style for you and your family, a
life style to give you the opportunity to really enjoy life.
So sit
down now and create a plan to give you exactly that.
Clearly
write out your goals.
Are you
trying to create more disposable income?
Do you
want to increase your retirement funds?
Are you
trading for fun and excitement?
How
much time will you spend per day carrying out your business?
Are you
psychologically prepared to be a share trader?
How
much capital do you wish to allocate to your trading plan?
How
much risk can you tolerate?
Will
you be day trading, medium term trading, long term investing?
Consider
the difference between a trader who answers these questions and one who does
not. It makes sense that the better prepared trader will make fewer mistakes.
He will also enjoy a greater percentage of wins.
Now let
us look at a sample trading plan. But remember, your trading pan is your own,
personal plan. Do not copy somebody else’s plan. Modify it to suit your own
style. You have to follow it to the minute detail, you have to own it.
Ok,
here is a skeleton plan.
·
I will daily search my target market for entry signals
·
My scans will be as follows:
·
My entry signals are:
·
I will open a trade as soon as all my entry signals are in place
·
I will size my position according to (my money management plan)
·
My exit signal will be:
·
How do I set my stop loss
·
I will exit when my stop loss is hit.
·
I will record my trade in my trading diary.
Note:
these are the minimum steps you should enter in your plan. Be specific,
describe your entry and exit points in detail. Your trading will then become
mechanic, cutting out emotions.
As time
goes on and you become familiar with your plan, you can start to refine it bit
by bit. But give it a chance to work first.
Trading System: The Entry
A few entry options, for example:
- breakout of a recognized chart pattern
- breakout of significant resistance
- pullback to support after a strong breakout
- pullback to strong support after a rally
If
you’re developing a trend following system, then moving averages will give you
a good indication of a trend having started. You can choose single, double, or
triple crossover methods, whichever appeals to you. Another idea is to find a
security that is trading at its recent high, perhaps by seeing if the highest
price in the last 200 days has occurred in the last three weeks, as this
indicates it is in the process of going up.
You can
also look at countertrend movement, and try to trade for the reversal. For
instance, if the security shows good support and resistance, you can buy long
when the price drops to the support level in anticipation of the bounce. You
can apply the same principle to trend lines. Another way is to watch the
retracement of a trending stock, and be ready to make an entry at the first
sign of a turn at the 50% level.
An
alternative is to pick an oscillator, decide at what level it indicates
overbought or oversold, and include in your system what value this has to be
for you to consider it a reversal point. You should usually look for
confirmation from a separate indication, so you could also include price
patterns or candlestick patterns that you want to see before entering a trade.
Method to the Madness (Part 1)
Method to the Madness (Part 1):
- Limit your commitment to any one
stock or financial instrument to only 10% of your trading account. If you
have $50,000 in your account only consider putting $5,000 towards any
particular trade. This applies regardless of how good you think the
opportunity may be.
- Limit your commitment to any
market sector to a maximum of 25% of your trading account, or $12,500 for
the example above. Securities in any particular sector tend to move in
tandem, so you don’t want to have too much of your account riding on any particular
group.
- Limit your possible loss on any
one trade to 2% of your trading account. While this may sound very low,
bear in mind that this is the possible loss, and not the amount you put
into the trade. Some professional traders even think 2% is too much.
- If you are trading in a financial
instrument that may result in a margin call, such as futures, plan to use
a maximum of 50% of your trading account in active trades so that you have
an adequate reserve on which to fall back if things don’t work out.
Many traders will aim for at least a 3 to 1 reward to risk
ratio. So you look for a profit level three times as high as the possible level
of loss. If you don’t stand to gain that much, then it’s probably not worth
trading and taking the risk. Your primary goal should always be preservation of
your account, and if you then take favorable trades your money will grow.
If we are winning we think we are a market
genius while if we are losing we tend to get upset, angry or even depressed.
Such is the nature of trading. Rare is the person who can stay emotionally
balanced in the face of either mounting losses or winnings.
What we need is something
that will tie us to the mast so that we can weather those emotional ups and
downs with objectivity. We need to plan ahead so that when we are about to
experience a losing trade we already have a strategy in place to deal with it.
The first line of defence
is the much talked about and celebrated protective stop loss order. No trader
should begin trading without them.
However I know I am not
the only trader in the world who has violated my own stop loss discipline the
moment my trade started gunning for that magic number.
I am only human and
losses hurt like hell. We are programmed by society to not be losers. Losing is
bad. Losing money is reallybad. It is therefore no surprise the
lengths we go to in order to avoid them.
Stop losses are a good
tool in a traders arsenal but I personally need more. I need to examine in
black and white what an idiot (or market genius) I have been after the event.
Enter the R-Multiple.
What is it? My explanation is best served with an example.
Suppose I have entered a
trade and I have allowed myself a permissible loss of £50 on that trade.
That is my 1R.
If I close the position
out with a profit of £100 then my R-Multiple is 2R. I have doubled my return on
capital.
If I close the position
out with a profit of £150 then my R-Multiple is 3R. I have made three times the
capital I was willing to lose.
And if I have a loss of
£100 then I have a negative R-Multiple of 2R.
In the last example only
one of two things can have happened a) I disobeyed my stop loss discipline
or b) the market gapped seriously lower and the first price I could get
before my stop loss order kicked in was £100 below my entry point. This is
uncommon and though it does happen in all likelihood would rarely result in
such a poor R-Multiple.
Some people use nominal
amounts in analysing their trading results and that’s fine with them but it
does not give a true reflection of how well a trade went.
Every savvy investor
knows its return on capital that counts and not the capital amount itself. The
R-Multiple is merely a measurement of return on capital employed.
There’s an old axiom which is still true, ‘Cut your losses and
let your profits run’, which most traders know, but many find difficult to
apply in practice. It is natural not to want to prove yourself wrong, and in a
sense that’s what you’re doing when your trade doesn’t work out and you have to
close out the position for a loss.
Position Sizing tells
a trader how much stock to buy. Correctly sizing your positions is one of the
most important areas of trading as it affects both diversification and money
management.
Factors that determine
the size of your position include –
- the ratio of risk to reward for
the trade
- risk tolerance of the trader
- trading account size
- current market exposure
- free equity
The
Breakout
Often the price will hang
around in the same general range for a time, with what is called trendless or
sideways trending, or sometimes range trading. Then something happens, and for
some reason the price starts moving either up or down, beyond the range it has
been in.
When the price breaks out
from an established pattern, you may consider that a new trend is starting. The
question is at what point you should decide to take the trade, and there is no
one correct answer. You can take it early in anticipation of the breakout,
acting on signs from technical indicators and chart patterns, but you stand a
risk that the signs are not going to play out as you expect, and the breakout
may not happen. On the other hand, if you hesitate too much, you may find that
the move is nearly over by the time you are sure.
It’s a balance. What many
traders do is identify a price level which they are comfortable with saying is
a level that will not be reached if the price is still trending sideways. Then
by definition any move beyond that level means that a trend has started, and you
can trade with a reasonable expectation that it will work.
Trendlines
If you have an
established trend, you can choose to enter the position when the price is on
the trend line and you’re expecting a continuation of the trend. If the trend
continues to hold, you expect the price to continue up in an uptrend, as the
trendline establishes the lowest point of support. Similarly, in a downtrend
the trendline marks the highest level of resistance.
Breaking
the Trendline
Another use of the trend
line is to watch for a technical sign that the trendline is about to fail, and
the trend may reverse. You can also use this as a reason to exit an existing
trade.
Support
and Resistance
Using support and
resistance is similar to the process described above with the trendlines –
because trendlines are simply angled support and resistance lines, when you get
down to it.
So if you have an
established support level, and the price comes down to touch it, with no
indication that the market has changed you may choose to take a long position,
expecting the support to hold. The same applies with resistance, as a price
that has risen to resistance should be repelled by definition.
Once again you can look
for breaking of the support or resistance. Traders use different indications to
confirm that the price has truly broken, and may not return again to the
previous range, for instance they may require that the price stays outside the
support or resistance for two trading days, or that it is more than 3% away.
This tactic is very
similar to “The Breakout” above, but is generally applicable whenever you have
found solid support or resistance levels, regardless of whether the price has
been trading in a limited range previously.
Retracements
Even in an established
trend, we know that the price will not simply go in one direction all the time.
Periodically, there will be retracements which technical analysis tells us are
commonly from 1/3 to 2/3 of the distance that the last leg moved. By keeping an
eye on a trending price, you should be able to see firstly how strong the trend
is, and secondly when a retracement has started. If it is a strong trend and
likely to continue, you have two ways to play the chart.
First, you can trade
countertrend, jumping on the retracement but watching carefully when
significant levels, such as 33% or 50% of retracement are reached to see if the
move is over; secondly, you can watch carefully for the move to be over before
trading with the trend, and this means that you take an early position on the
price.
Gaps
Even gaps can provide
information to allow a good entry. If the price retraces to a runaway gap, you
may expect that the gap will give support and that the trend will resume. In
this case, you would buy if the price dipped to the gap. The overall concept is
to buy when the price is near support, but to watch carefully for any violation
of the support so that you can exit a losing trade.
Summary
- your main aim in trading is to
preserve your capital
- position sizing is essential in
achieving this task
- don’t trade more than 10% of your
account in one position
- don’t trade more than 25% of your
account in one market sector
- don’t risk the loss of more than
2% of your account on any one trade
- in a losing position, avoid risk
and cut your losses quickly
- in a winning position, seek risk
and let your winners run
- learn to control your emotions and
trade consistently in accordance with your plan
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